My 2013 Predictions
With the pervasiveness of IP video estimated at >90% of all network traffic in the next few years, improvements in codec technology will have a very viable ROI. Efficiencies achieved with HEVC or DASH use less bandwidth and are more adaptive for TV-Everywhere. I would expect to see deployment as a priority in 2013.
Cable companies will roll out new edge caching and federated CDN technologies as they either join telco centric Operator Carrier Exchange (OCX) or compete against them.
Hybrid QAM/IPTV home gateways will see several major metro market deployments. The home gateway technology now has a natural evolution path to IPTV network multicast clearing the path for large scale deployments without abandoning STB investments.
Bandwidth reclamation initiatives will be a priority. Support for Docsis 3.1, more HD, and multi-ethnic programming will continue.
TR-069 managed devices and proactive device management drive SPIT investment.
Converge Cable Access Platform (CCAP) will move from trials to full-scale deployments and see lots of investment as it also has a compelling business case.
Network PVR, PVR resistant advertising, 4K (Ultra HD) and possibly Web RTC should also certainly be kept on your radar.
Business revenues from SMB, Cell Back-haul, Carrier Ethernet still provide best growth and margin opportunities in 2013.
The biggest threat to MVPD’s is the devaluing value of Pay TV video from consumers and the accelerated pricing caused by industry consolidation of the big six media conglomerates. Most notably Disney with its ESPN leverage and Viacom with its long lineup of niche channels. Aero is one company looking to disrupt in this area and could be transformational if they win the legal cases for copyright. They certainly have a compelling consumer product and enough financial backing to fight the fight.
Other disruptions could come from Apple but would likely not be as sustainable as Aero. Apples ability to ink deals with content providers is well demonstrated. Like with Itune’s music, they may have a first to market advantage as the did by de-packaging of CD’s and 99 cent MP3′s, but this would be short-lived as Apple is already on the FTC’s radar.
The real battle will be silently taking place in the background over the next few years as major distributors look at Eco-systems for developing original content beyond reality TV. NBC and Fox have already shown a few of their cards by doubling down on sports programming. Amazon, Netflix and others also have pilots underway.
MSO’s are investing or exploring in new managed service segments. Hospitality, home automation, connected car, heathcare, and education services are blue ocean opportunities.