If the never-ending stream of data on cord-cutting has faded into a blur, here’s one new finding that may be of actual interest. In her latest research note, Needham & Co. analyst Laura Martin reported the results of a simple request she made of 300 respondents in October: “Please list which TV channels you must have available online for you to turn off your TV subscription.” The results contain a few surprises.
Page 39 of 41
If you have not seen this presentation yet Mary provides some very interesting focus areas / data points you should examine closely and ask yourself the “So-What’s”. Of course a key assumption here is that the value of a consumers time and attention are equal across mediums. But I really do not think that is the case do you?
Among 100+ other industry categories, Compete’s category profiles include an aggregate view of all US internet users engagement with web-based email clients. At first glance, there’s some surprising data in there. If you were to ask me what the most popular email client was before reviewing this category, I would say Gmail without a doubt.
Based on unique visitors from the US IBP (internet browsing population), Gmail doesn’t even hold a candle to Hotmail (94% larger than Gmail) and Yahoo Mail (190% larger). Gmail’s buzz is obviously much larger than it’s bite.
Granted, Gmail is younger than Hotmail and Yahoo Mail. According to Wikipedia Hotmail was established in 1994, Yahoo Mail in 1997, and Gmail in 2004, so there’s certainly an opportunity for Gmail to gain market share as it matures.
When looking at the Email category as a whole, it doesn’t look like growth in market share will come from new web-based email users. Overall monthly unique visitor traffic (a direct indicator of email usage) to the entire Email category has been trending down. In fact, traffic has decreased 11% year over year.
Perhaps the Web-based Email market has reached saturation? It will be interesting to see where monthly traffic levels off and how market share changes over time.
Facebook is dominating the U.S. display ad market, according to data from comScore.
In Q3 2010, Facebook served 297 billion display ad impressions giving it 23% of the U.S. market for display ads. In the first quarter of 2009, it only had a 7% share.
Yahoo came in a distant second place for Q3 2010 with 141 billion display ads and 11% of the market.
As you can see in the chart below, Facebook’s share of the display market has that “hockey-stick” growth, which should be scaring Yahoo, Google, and AOL.
If Facebook’s email service is a success, it’s bad news for Yahoo and AOL, which are already losing users. It’s also bad news for Google, which uses Gmail as a launch point into search, Google Apps, and to small degree social stuff through Buzz.
What would it take for Facebook email to be a success? Well, Facebook has 150 million active users in the United States. It’s unlikely to convert all those users, but if it can get just a third of them to start using its email, it would have the second most popular email service in the U.S.
Below, we’ve charted the monthly uniques for each big email service. For some context we also charted how many overall uniques Facebook gets.
Some interesting insights but probably not anything most of us did not already know. Generational behavior shifts are pretty obvious to everyone. Time/Convenience = Value equation is also pretty apparent.
Revenue sharing, subscription licensing and advertising will clearly not deliver the revenue/margins needed to acquire the linear and non-linear content to feed the 12 second attention spans of the channel surfing masses & YouTube insomniacs.
The question dujour is how to compete with cable. The answer is by getting relevant. This means unlocking the Multimedia and Entertainment Kingdoms to get relevant content? Scaling long tail content is not the answer and delivering it in more innovative and nontraditional ways is not transformative? Ask Apple, Amazon and Netflix.
My assertion is that Media 2.0 companies will fast follow Comcast/NBC into a vertically integrated model to leverage price points for multichannel distribution and carriage agreements. Interactive advertising, gaming, Network PVR, and three screen viewing are just nice concierge services but without relative content to hold your attention over a significant period of time/day what does it matter.
via blog maverick